Model estimates 2-year relapse risk in ANCA-associated vasculitis

Researchers performed a post hoc analysis of 649 participants from the PEXIVAS trial who achieved remission from ANCA-associated vasculitis with severe renal or pulmonary involvement, developing a risk-prediction model for first relapse within 2 years. The final model incorporated sex, induction agent (oral cyclophosphamide or rituximab), ANCA subtype, nonhaemorrhagic respiratory or mucous membrane/eye involvement at presentation, and eGFR at remission, with an optimism-corrected area under the curve of 0.709 and a calibration slope of 0.99. The authors state the model may inform monitoring and treatment decisions but note it requires external validation.

Most relevant for: Patients with ANCA-associated vasculitis who have achieved remission, particularly those with prior severe renal impairment or diffuse alveolar haemorrhage.

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